Position Notes

VCX NAV Model

A projected net-asset-value model for the Fundrise Innovation Fund, built from the audited annual report rather than weight-based estimates — with stale reference valuations corrected to what is actually embedded in the reported NAV.

Ticker VCX · NYSE Source Audited annual report, FYE Mar 31, 2026 Updated Aug 14, 2026 Positions 29
Not investment advice

A personal model published for reference. Cost and fair-value figures come from the fund's own filing; the “current valuation” column is my own research on where each company has since been marked. Assumptions are mine and may be wrong.

01

The Model

Toggle between conservative and bull-case company valuations, search, and sort any column. Markups are dilution-adjusted pre-money to pre-money, and each position carries a note on what its stale mark is anchored to — so the NAV/share contribution reflects an actual round price rather than a guess.

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02

The Thesis in Short

Why the gap exists

Stale marks

The official $18.97 NAV reflects valuations as of March 31. Anthropic is carried at roughly a $350B pre-money mark — anchored to the February tranche VCX bought at cost — against a $900B Series H closed in May. Anduril, Databricks, and SpaceX have all repriced since the mark too.

Why it may persist

No forced catch-up

Fundrise updates NAV quarterly, so the reported number stays stale by construction between marks. That cuts both ways — at roughly $34 the market has already priced in a large share of the repricing, so the gap is an argument about magnitude, not direction.

03

Catalysts

  1. Aug 13, 2026 · passed
    VCX lockup expiration — accelerated from the original Sep 19 date; watch for supply working through
  2. Mid-Aug 2026
    Fundrise Q2 NAV update — the next chance for the reported NAV to catch up to current marks
  3. Oct–Nov 2026
    Anthropic IPO window — S-1 filed; FT reports a $2T+ target
04

My Position

Options overlay

Sold $30-strike January puts for $9.50 in premium — an effective breakeven of $20.50, roughly in line with a conservative post-repricing NAV estimate.

05

Institutional Ownership

Not tracked yet, honestly. VCX only began listing in March 2026, and 13F/13G ownership trackers show no institutional filings against the ticker so far — there isn't a full reporting quarter of history behind it yet.

What I'll watch instead, for now

Lockup expiration supply (Aug 13, 2026, passed) and the quarterly NAV update are the more relevant near-term flow signals for a fund this new. Once a couple of 13F cycles have passed, I'll start tracking institutional ownership trend here the same way as the single-name positions on this site.