Position Notes
A projected net-asset-value model for the Fundrise Innovation Fund, built from the audited annual report rather than weight-based estimates — with stale reference valuations corrected to what is actually embedded in the reported NAV.
A personal model published for reference. Cost and fair-value figures come from the fund's own filing; the “current valuation” column is my own research on where each company has since been marked. Assumptions are mine and may be wrong.
Toggle between conservative and bull-case company valuations, search, and sort any column. Markups are dilution-adjusted pre-money to pre-money, and each position carries a note on what its stale mark is anchored to — so the NAV/share contribution reflects an actual round price rather than a guess.
The Q2 update (N-PORT filed Aug 28) lifted the official NAV from $18.97 to $21.70 as of June 30, but it still lags. One detail cuts against holders: VCX sold roughly a third of its Anthropic position during Q2 at the old price, right before marking the rest up. The model below still uses the audited March 31 figures as its base. Anthropic is carried at roughly a $350B pre-money mark — anchored to the February tranche VCX bought at cost — against a $900B Series H closed in May. Anduril, Databricks, and SpaceX have all repriced since the mark too.
Fundrise updates NAV quarterly, so the reported number stays stale by construction between marks. That cuts both ways. At $26.81 (Oct 9 close, down from ~$30 a week earlier and ~$34 in August) the market has still priced in a large share of the repricing, about a 24% premium to the $21.70 NAV, down from ~38% a week ago. The next mark (Sept 30) won't be public until late November. So the gap is an argument about magnitude, not direction. There's new supply too: since Sept 10, Fundrise can sell up to $1B of new VCX shares through an at-the-market program with Jefferies, at no less than NAV plus commissions. Selling above NAV adds to NAV per share, but it also caps how far the premium can run.
Sold $30-strike January puts for $9.50 in premium — an effective breakeven of $20.50, roughly in line with a conservative post-repricing NAV estimate. As of the Oct 9 close at $26.81, the shares are below the $30 strike and still above that breakeven.
Not tracked yet, honestly. VCX only began listing in March 2026, and 13F/13G ownership trackers show no institutional filings against the ticker so far — there isn't a full reporting quarter of history behind it yet.
Lockup expiration supply (Aug 13, 2026, passed) and the quarterly NAV update are the more relevant near-term flow signals for a fund this new. Once a couple of 13F cycles have passed, I'll start tracking institutional ownership trend here the same way as the single-name positions on this site.