Position Notes

VCX NAV Model

A projected net-asset-value model for the Fundrise Innovation Fund, built from the actual Q1 2026 SEC Schedule of Investments rather than weight-based estimates.

Ticker VCX · NYSE Filing data Mar 31, 2026 Updated Aug 13, 2026 Positions 29
Not investment advice

A personal model published for reference. Cost and fair-value figures come from the fund's own filing; the “current valuation” column is my own research on where each company has since been marked. Assumptions are mine and may be wrong.

01

The Model

Toggle between conservative and bull-case company valuations, search, and sort any column. The NAV/share column shows what each position contributes to the gap between the fund's stale reported NAV and where the portfolio is actually marked today.

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02

The Thesis in Short

Why the gap exists

Stale marks

The official $18.43 NAV reflects company valuations as of March 31. Anthropic alone is still carried near a $183B implied valuation against a confirmed $965B Series H — and several other positions have repriced or been acquired since.

Why it may persist

No forced catch-up

Fundrise updates NAV quarterly. Until the Q2 figure lands, the reported number stays stale by construction — which cuts both ways if the market has already priced the repricing in.

03

Catalysts

  1. Aug 4, 2026
    SPCX earnings
  2. Aug 6, 2026
    SpaceX employee tender / unlock
  3. Aug 13, 2026
    VCX lockup expiration — accelerated from the original Sep 19 date
  4. Mid-Aug 2026
    Fundrise Q2 NAV update — the next chance for the reported NAV to catch up to current marks
  5. Oct–Nov 2026
    Anthropic IPO window — per FT reporting, targeting roughly $2T
04

My Position

Options overlay

Sold $30-strike January puts for $9.50 in premium — an effective breakeven of $20.50, roughly in line with a conservative post-repricing NAV estimate.