Position Notes
How I pick what to look at, and what I'm currently watching.
Four things I look for, in roughly this order. A company doesn't need to be exceptional on all four, but weakness on more than one is usually disqualifying.
Founders or operators with a track record, skin in the game, and a clear sense of what they're building toward. This is the hardest of the four to assess and the one I weight most heavily — a mediocre business under great management can turn around; the reverse rarely happens.
A big total addressable market — enough revenue potential that the company doesn't hit a ceiling from a shrinking or niche market before the thesis plays out. I'd rather own a small share of something huge than a large share of something small.
Real free cash flow or EBITDA, or — for earlier-stage names — a large enough cash pile that the business isn't at the mercy of capital markets to survive the next few years. Optionality matters more than profitability on day one, but the company needs a runway that doesn't depend on someone else's generosity.
Are they actually doing it — growing revenue, shipping a better product, taking share? Vision and TAM are cheap; execution is the evidence the first three points are real. This is the one I keep re-checking after initiating a position.
These are my own criteria and notes, published for reference — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything.
Each name has its own write-up, argued against the four criteria above with the specific catalysts and risks I'm tracking — plus, as of Aug 2026, a read on where institutional ownership is trending for each, as a check on whether professional money agrees with the thesis.
A 29-position venture portfolio — Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, SpaceX. The thesis is less about any one company's execution than about the reported NAV (now $21.70) lagging where the portfolio is actually marked, with an Anthropic IPO expected in November.
Live NAV model →The thesis has moved off cars. Q3 free cash flow of $1.53B beat by about $6B, but on capex pushed into Q4 and with operating income down 56% — while the Roadster flew on Oct 15 and a SpaceX merger moved from rumor to special committees.
Deep dive →Best execution record on this list. Starlink cash flows today, Starship now in orbit carrying Starlink V3s, an ~$8B spectrum deal to turn Starlink into a phone carrier, and a Q3 with AI at more than half of $14.6B of revenue and a first $4.4B profit — alongside a $35–40B Q4 capex guide.
Deep dive →$757M pro forma backlog, revenue up 605%, five more acquisitions in September, and $270M+ of orders booked in Q3 — funded by a share count that's now 582M and still climbing. The entire question is whether backlog converts faster than the float grows.
Deep dive →Q3 revenue of $174M (+336%) beat by $33M and the 2026 guide went to $505–515M, but most of the jump is the SkyWater fab, and adjusted losses nearly tripled. Tempo is shipping, the CEO says Superion 256 is sold out for 2027, and backlog is $1.2B. The question now is 2027 delivery against a share count up 22% in a year.
Deep dive →Repositioning from probe maker to chip licensor. Midjourney, Aleph Neuro, Sam Altman's Merge Labs, and now Bridge Neurotech are all building on the same silicon — and Mendaera's Focalist is the first Embedded product on sale. Q3 beat again (revenue +52%, 73% gross margin) and guidance went up a third time, but the stock fell: two customers are each over 10% of revenue, and the "next Midjourney" is still unsigned.
Deep dive →The first human prime-editing data, a CGD BLA targeted for 1H 2027, the first Wilson patient dosed, and AATD cleared for the clinic — on $109M of cash that only reaches into 2027.
Deep dive →After $6B of losses, Ginkgo is selling its robot labs and the data they produce — Novo Nordisk, PNNL, Lilly TuneLab, and a new AbbVie/Takeda antibody consortium. The stock doubled in three weeks on partnerships alone, then swung between $18 and $11 in a single week; revenue is still down 48%.
Deep dive →Yandex's founder rebuilt as a GPU cloud: revenue +454%, Microsoft and Meta anchor contracts, $8B of cash, and a 41% EBITDA margin. Includes a side-by-side with CoreWeave, IREN, and Oklo.
Deep dive →A separate, mechanical screen — not the discretionary picks above. Runs daily on a Lambda: S&P 500+400+600 filtered to last close above the 200-day SMA and 8-day EMA, market cap over $1B, ranked by trailing EPS.
| Ticker | Name | Sector | Price | Market Cap | EPS | Fwd P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
A data screen, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything.