Position Notes
How I pick what to look at, and what I'm currently watching.
Four things I look for, in roughly this order. A company doesn't need to be exceptional on all four, but weakness on more than one is usually disqualifying.
Founders or operators with a track record, skin in the game, and a clear sense of what they're building toward. This is the hardest of the four to assess and the one I weight most heavily — a mediocre business under great management can turn around; the reverse rarely happens.
A big total addressable market — enough revenue potential that the company doesn't hit a ceiling from a shrinking or niche market before the thesis plays out. I'd rather own a small share of something huge than a large share of something small.
Real free cash flow or EBITDA, or — for earlier-stage names — a large enough cash pile that the business isn't at the mercy of capital markets to survive the next few years. Optionality matters more than profitability on day one, but the company needs a runway that doesn't depend on someone else's generosity.
Are they actually doing it — growing revenue, shipping a better product, taking share? Vision and TAM are cheap; execution is the evidence the first three points are real. This is the one I keep re-checking after initiating a position.
These are my own criteria and notes, published for reference — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything.
Each name has its own write-up, argued against the four criteria above with the specific catalysts and risks I'm tracking — plus, as of Aug 2026, a read on where institutional ownership is trending for each, as a check on whether professional money agrees with the thesis.
A 29-position venture portfolio — Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Anduril, SpaceX. The thesis is less about any one company's execution than about the reported $18.97 NAV lagging where the portfolio is actually marked.
Live NAV model →The thesis has moved off cars. Real free cash flow funding two speculative bets — unsupervised autonomy and Optimus — with the Semi now shipping and the Roadster reveal set for Oct 1.
Deep dive →Best execution record on this list. Starlink cash flows today, Starship cost-per-kilogram as the non-linear variable, plus an orbital-compute timeline that keeps getting pulled forward — now Q4 2027, ahead of even ARK's projections.
Deep dive →$757M pro forma backlog, revenue up 605%, and five more acquisitions in September alone — funded by a share count that's now 582M and still climbing. The entire question is whether backlog converts faster than the float grows.
Deep dive →Three Superion 256 systems sold, including one to NVIDIA's quantum research center, plus an owned chip foundry funding a roadmap to fault tolerance. SHIELD/Golden Dome is the credential that puts quantum inside defense procurement.
Deep dive →Repositioning from probe maker to chip licensor. Midjourney, Aleph Neuro, and Sam Altman's Merge Labs are all building on the same silicon — and Needham just initiated at Buy with a $10 target.
Deep dive →The first human prime-editing data, a CGD BLA targeted for 1H 2027, and Wilson and AATD programs both cleared for the clinic — on $109M of cash that only reaches into 2027.
Deep dive →A separate, mechanical screen — not the discretionary picks above. Runs daily on a Lambda: S&P 500+400+600 filtered to last close above the 200-day SMA and 8-day EMA, market cap over $1B, ranked by trailing EPS.
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A data screen, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything.